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ISM® Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for Manufacturing PMI®, Services PMI® and Diffusion Indexes


TEMPE, Ariz., Jan. 20, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Based on input from an independent expert, Institute for Supply Management® recently announced the completion of its annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing PMI® Report On Business® and the monthly Services PMI® Report On Business®. Purchasing managers and economists who track these indexes will note that changes are effective with the January 2022 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 1, 2022, and the January 2022 ISM® Services PMI® Report On Business®, which will be released on February 3, 2022.

NOTE: Beginning with the February 2019 report (January 2019 data), ISM® only rounds the final published numbers rather than also rounding intermediate numbers.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes one year ahead (2022).

As in previous years, the X-13-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Services indexes for January 2015 through December 2021, as well as the 2022 projected seasonal factors. The 2022 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2023. Projected seasonal factors for 2022 are shown below.

2022 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM® Manufacturing Indexes



New Orders

Production

Employment

Inventories

Jan-2022

0.955

0.949

0.956

1.000

Feb-2022

1.025

0.998

0.996

1.026

Mar-2022

1.086

1.042

1.012

1.013

Apr-2022

1.068

1.080

1.020

1.009

May-2022

1.043

0.987

0.997

0.995

Jun-2022

1.023

1.054

1.052

0.987

Jul-2022

1.013

1.013

1.036

0.984

Aug-2022

0.957

0.997

0.987

1.029

Sep-2022

1.006

0.983

0.979

1.000

Oct-2022

0.945

0.983

1.011

1.015

Nov-2022

0.931

0.992

0.994

0.984

Dec-2022

0.934

0.936

0.961

0.962

To compute the PMI®:

1)  Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories to two decimal places. Supplier Deliveries (which are not seasonally adjusted) it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2)  Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3)  Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

2022 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM® Services Indexes



Business
Activity

New Orders

Employment

Prices

Jan-2022

0.921

0.928

0.955

0.981

Feb-2022

0.981

1.018

0.966

0.983

Mar-2022

1.044

0.999

1.012

1.028

Apr-2022

1.109

1.112

1.025

1.036

May-2022

1.043

1.015

1.030

1.043

Jun-2022

1.020

1.029

1.063

1.026

Jul-2022

1.015

1.002

1.018

1.021

Aug-2022

0.944

0.938

0.977

0.988

Sep-2022

1.031

1.040

0.999

0.993

Oct-2022

0.992

0.981

0.985

0.995

Nov-2022

0.956

0.986

0.977

0.973

Dec-2022

0.955

0.970

0.989

0.932

To compute the Services PMI®:

1)  Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2)  Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3)  Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

About ISM® Report On Business®
The ISM® Report On Business® is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic and business leaders for its timely, accurate information. The Manufacturing and Services ISM® Report On Business® is published monthly by Institute for Supply Management®. Each month, both reports are compiled from responses to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives across the country and reflects change, if any, in the current month compared to previous months.

ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management® ("ISM") Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) ("ISM ROB") contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.

You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing kcahill@ismworld.org. Subject: Content Request.

ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

About Institute for Supply Management®
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Advancetm Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

For a historical data subscription, please contact Kristina Cahill kcahill@ismworld.org

Institute for Supply Management logo. (PRNewsFoto/Institute for Supply Management)

 

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management


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