Le Lézard
Classified in: Business, Covid-19 virus
Subjects: NPT, ECO

Global Growth Set for Sharp Decline in 2023--and a Slower Trend Beyond


NEW YORK, Oct. 12, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The global economy is weakening rapidly, with war, inflation, monetary tightening, extreme climate events, and the aftermath of COVID-19 all setting the stage for a substantial slowdown in growth for 2023. While a global recession may be avoided in the year ahead, the longer-term outlook signals a prolonged period of disruptions and uncertainties for businesses?but also new opportunities as the decade proceeds.

According to The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2023, global GDP is now likely to grow just 3.2% in 2022, before growth slows further to 2.1% in 2023. Growth is forecasted to recover to 2.6% in the years 2024-29, well below the pre-pandemic (2011-19) trend of 3.3%.

"After a strong pandemic rebound in 2021, the global economy is poised for a year of anemic growth?at best?in 2023," said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. "In the US, aggressive monetary tightening appears certain to produce a recession over the next several quarters, with zero growth likely for 2023 as a whole. While a historic combination of crises is driving up recession risks worldwide, it's also important not to lose sight of the longer trend. Beyond 2023, we expect demographic factors to produce slower trend growth than the 2010s, with emerging economies poised to drive an even larger proportion of global growth."

Added economist Klaas de Vries: "Europe is the epicenter of economic concerns entering 2023, amid a looming energy crisis and a war in Ukraine with no end in sight. Even if outages and rationing are avoided, the surge in natural gas prices will leave a deeper recession than we expect in the US. For the most exposed economies, this will mean negative GDP growth for the whole of 2023?including Germany and UK, where we expect contractions of ?0.6%."

Key insights and forecasts:

After a rapid recovery in 2021, the global economy is set to see a severe slowdown in growth for 2022 and 2023?with a global recession possible, though not yet likely, in the year ahead.

 Beyond 2023, global growth is likely to fall below the prepandemic trend.

Risks to the global economy remain two-sided, characterized by both easily modeled upsides and downsides, but also "gray swans" with less predictable outcomes.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

SOURCE The Conference Board


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News published on 12 october 2022 at 10:00 and distributed by: